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The Associate Director, GTN Strategy & Forecasting is a critical financial and strategic role responsible for projecting and managing the multi-billion dollar revenue deductions across the company's portfolio. This role sits at the high-stakes intersection of commercial strategy and finance. The successful candidate will lead the predictive modeling for channel distribution and revenue erosion across all commercial and government segments. Your forecasting models will directly influence corporate financial guidance, pipeline commercialization strategies, and high-stakes Payer/PBM contracting decisions. You will be the definitive expert on how channel mix shifts impact the bottom line.

Key Responsibilities

1. Gross-to-Net (GTN) Forecasting & Modeling

+ Predictive Financial Modeling: Build and maintain dynamic forecasting models to project GTN discount reserves, pipeline accruals, and erosion percentages. This includes consideration for channel mix and discount rate predictions. Responsible for GTN forecasts for every major planning cycle.

+ Deduction Stream Analytics: Analyze and forecast complex discount streams, including commercial rebates, Medicare Part D coverage gaps, Managed Medicaid rebates, 340B discounts, and patient copay assistance cards.

+ Policy & Macro Scenario Simulation: Run predictive simulations to analyze the financial impact of major healthcare policy updates, inflation penalties, and pipeline drug launches on overall GTN health.

+ Pre-Deal Incorporation: Work closely with Pre-Deal groups to understand and highlight overall GTN impact

2. Accrual Strategy & Close Variance Analysis

+ Month-End/Quarter-End Close: Partner closely with Finance & Accounting during financial close cycles to evaluate forecast-to-actual variances and adjust balance sheet accrual strategies.

+ True-Up Methodology: Manage and optimize the pipeline "true-up" process, tracking delayed payer utilization data against historical accrual assumptions to prevent financial line-item surprises.

+ Government Pricing Feedback Loop: Collaborate with the Government Pricing team to monitor how commercial contract updates alter Medicaid Best Price and Average Manufacturer Price (AMP),340B, factoring these shifts back into the core GTN model.

+ Data Integrity Oversight: Validate and clean massive longitudinal datasets and healthcare data streams (e.g., IQVIA, Symphony, internal rebate systems) to ensure forecasting model inputs are accurate.

3. Executive Insights & Leadership

+ Cross-Functional Synthesis: Serve as the central financial hub connecting Pricing & Contracting, Brand Marketing, Finance & Accounting, Data & Analytics, and Government Pricing.

+ Strategic Reporting: Translate data models into high-level, clear visual narratives for Budget and Forecast updates; drive strategic risks/opportunity discussions.

+ Audit & Governance Compliance: Ensure all forecasting processes adhere strictly to internal financial controls, Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) compliance, and accounting standards for revenue recognition.

Candidate Profile & Qualifications

+ Education: Bachelor's Degree in Finance, Accounting, Economics, or a highly quantitative field is required. MBA, CPA, or CFA designation is highly preferred.

+ Experience: Minimum of 5-7 years of experience in the pharmaceutical or biotech industry, with a direct focus on GTN finance, commercial forecasting, or market access analytics.

+ Data Expertise: Proven experience working with massive longitudinal datasets and healthcare data aggregators (e.g., IQVIA, Symphony, Managed Markets Insights).

Competencies

Accountability for Results - Stay focused on key strategic objectives, be accountable for high standards of performance, and take an active role in leading change.

Strategic Thinking & Problem Solving - Make decisions considering the long-term impact to customers, patients, employees, and the business.

Patient & Customer Centricity - Maintain an ongoing focus on the needs of our customers and/or key stakeholders.

Impactful Communication - Communicate with logic, clarity, and respect. Influence at all levels to achieve the best results for Otsuka.

Respectful Collaboration - Seek and value others' perspectives and strive for diverse partnerships to enhance work toward common goals.

Empowered Development - Play an active role in professional development as a business imperative.

Minimum $150,034.00 - Maximum $224,250.00, plus incentive opportunity: The range shown represents a typical pay range or starting pay for individuals who are hired in the role to perform in the United States. Other elements may be used to determine actual pay such as the candidate's job experience, specific skills, and comparison to internal incumbents currently in role. Typically, actual pay will be positioned within the established range, rather than at its minimum or maximum. This information is provided to applicants in accordance with states and local laws.

Application Deadline : This will be posted for a minimum of 5 business days.

Company benefits: Comprehensive medical, dental, vision, prescription drug coverage, company provided basic life, accidental death & dismemberment, short-term and long-term disability insurance, tuition reimbursement, student loan assistance, a generous 401(k) match, flexible time off, paid holidays, and paid leave programs as well as other company provided benefits.

Come discover more about Otsuka and our benefit offerings; https://ah-prod.com/multi/videoplayer/player.html?v=6385356920112 .

Join Our Talent Community: Stay connected with Otsuka by joining our Talent Community. Tell us about your interests, and we'll notify you about future opportunities that align with your background. https://community.hireez.com/cielo-otsuka/82cb3591

Disclaimer:

This job description is intended to describe the general nature and level of the work being performed by the people assigned to this position. It is not intended to include every job duty and responsibility specific to the position. Otsuka reserves the right to amend and change responsibilities to meet business and organizational needs as necessary.

Otsuka is an equal opportunity employer. All qualified applicants are encouraged to apply and will be given consideration for employment without regard to race, color, sex, gender identity or gender expression, sexual orientation, age, disability, religion, national origin, veteran status, marital status, or any other legally protected characteristic.

If you are a qualified individual with a disability or a disabled veteran, you ma...

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Associate Director, GTN Strategy & Forecasting

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Associate Director, GTN Strategy & Forecasting